Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Weather update 8 June

Hello Bill and crew -

Winds will continue backing through this evening and tonight and by tomorrow morning will be SW in the 15-19 knot range. Seas will generally remain in the 5-7 foot range through tonight, then may ease slightly during the day tomorrow as winds continue to back, likely running SSW at 14-18 knots tomorrow afternoon.

It still appears that winds will increase quickly tomorrow evening and will have backed to S and perhaps SSE by midnight with speeds up to 22-26 knots. Speeds will push up to 27-31 knots later at night, perhaps backing all the way to SE. Seas will build to 7-9 feet through tomorrow night.

The occluded front appears that it will not be quite as strong as it appeared yesterday, thus the wind speeds are not expected to be quite as high. Also, with the good speed made yesterday, it appears that the yacht will be a bit farther east than was expected yesterday, so the frontal passage will probably occur around mid morning on Friday near 22W.

Behind the front winds will shift to WSW with speeds dropping quickly to 14-18 knots, but later Friday afternoon winds will back to SW at similar speeds. Seas will be a bit confused for a while following the wind shift while subsiding only a little bit. Later Friday night winds will back to SSW and increase a bit, generally 17-21 knots by Saturday morning as a secondary cold front approaches. This front will pass sometime later Saturday with winds shifting to W behind it and dropping off to 14-18 knots. Lighter WSW winds appear likely by Sunday morning, then Sunday night and Monday mainly W winds will push back up to 20 knots or so approaching southwestern Ireland.

A general GC route still appears favorable with adjustments as needed for wind angle and comfort. It still appears that some rigorous conditions are likely tomorrow night into early Friday, but sustained wind speeds now appear that they will remain just below gale force, though some gale force gusts could occur. After the occluded front moves through, generally favorable conditions are likely for the remainder of the passage to Bantry Bay.

Email with questions.

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