Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Weather Update 7 June

Hello Bill and crew -

Nice to hear that you have enjoyed some “hurtling" under sail…

Tropical Storm Colin has become a non tropical low along the North Carolina coast and will race northeast over the next couple of days, essentially becoming the “Newfoundland Low” as it merges with another system in that area. By Thursday morning it will be centered near 47N/48W with a strong occluded front extending southeast to about 42N/34W or so. The low will continue northeast later in the week and its occluded front will push east even more quickly, and by daybreak Friday will extend in a north-south fashion along about 23W from 50N to 45N. It will quickly push east across 20W by midday Friday, then will become a bit weaker and less well defined over the weekend while the low continues northeast well to the north.

It will be the approach and passage of the front that will provide with most rigorous sailing conditions for the remainder of the passage, but all with generally favorable wind direction.

Through this afternoon and this evening, generally NW winds in the 20-24 knot range will prevail, then winds will back to WNW later at night, and speeds will drop back to 16-20 knots tomorrow with the wind continuing to back, likely due W by later in the afternoon.

Winds will back to SW through tomorrow night, still 16-20 knots.

Seas will remain generally in the 4-6 foot range through Thursday morning, maybe a little higher at times tonight.

During Thursday as the occluded front begins to approaches from the west, winds will back to SSW and increase to 19-23 knots in the afternoon. A more dramatic increase in winds and seas is likely Thursday evening and Thursday night with wind speeds of 27-31 knots by midnight and seas of 6-8 feet. Later at night sustained gales are possible with seas perhaps building above 11 feet. Wind direction through this time will be generally S.

The front should pass around daybreak Friday with winds shifting to SW and dropping rather quickly to the 20-25 knot range with seas subsiding. After that, SW winds backing to W through the weekend approaching Ireland, wind speeds around 20 knots Saturday, closer to 25 knots Sunday, a bit less Monday.

So get prepared for a somewhat wild ride Thursday night, but otherwise some fairly good sailing conditions for the North Atlantic.

Email with questions.

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