Monday, June 6, 2016

Weather Update 7 June

Hello Bill and crew -

Glad to hear that you have pushed through the light headwinds and are able to sail again.

Winds will slowly back to N through tonight (maybe NNW by tomorrow morning) with speeds increasing to 18-22 knots, and seas will build to 4-6 feet. NNW winds are likely through the day tomorrow at similar speeds, then tomorrow night look for winds to back to NW with speeds dropping off a bit. Winds will continue backing through Wednesday and by later in the day W winds at 14-18 knots are likely. Seas will remain at about the same levels through the middle of the week.

A short term deviation of the route toward the east makes sense in order to achieve a better wind angle, then as the wind backs  tomorrow night and Wednesday, you will be able to turn more toward the north. No reason at that point to go back and join the “old” GC route, but rather you can just set a new GC route toward the destination when the wind direction allows.

Later in the week we will need to deal with the “Newfoundland Low” that we have been talking about fora few days now. This low will be rather intense as it passes Cape Race Wednesday night (it likely will contain the remnants of tropical storm Colin). Later in the week the low will track east-northeast and become stronger with its circulation expanding. An occluded front in the eastern portion of the circulation of the low will move across 20W Friday night. This will lead to a period of stronger winds for the yacht.

Winds will back to SW on Thursday ahead of this feature, but wind speeds will likely remain below 20 knots. Thursday night winds will back to SSW and then to S and wind speeds will increase through the night, likely running 25-30 knots by Friday morning in the vicinity of 23W. The occluded front will sweep east across the route on Friday with S winds increasing to 30-35 knots head of it through the morning and midday hours along with seas building to 6-9 feet, then later in the day as the front passes, winds will shift to SW and drop back to 20-25 knots with seas easing a bit. Some rain is likely with the front.

Generally SW winds then appear likely through next weekend with speeds around 20 knots for the approach to Ireland. Winds may veer a bit more toward W Sunday night and Monday for the final approach.

Bottom line, generally acceptable conditions for the rest of the passage, but with a period of rigorous sailing with near gale conditions for about 18 hours later Thursday night and for most of the daytime hours on Friday.

Email with any questions.

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