Weather Visualization

When we get Ken's forecasts each day on Visions we always read them in front of a chart, ideally with the latest Grib showing the computer model weather forecast.  It is difficult to visualize what he is saying without that aid.  To assist our readers, I downloaded the latest GFS grib file to see what this low Ken and Bill are discussing might look like.

Here is an image of todays Grib File showing Visions Current location (green marker) with the weather forecast time of ~Midnight Sat Night/Sun Morning.  The white dot is the 39/39 waypoint that Bill has been considering and you can see why Expedition has been suggesting they stay a bit further South to stay on the favorable side of that low pressure system.  It sounds to me like Ken thinks the computer model is over-predicting this low and it likely won't be as significant as as this image suggests which is why he wasn't as worried about venturing further north.  Plus, what I don't have plotted above is where the boat will be at this time.  Sorry I don't have expedition on my laptop anymore so am having to use a free grib viewer (predict-wind.com).  If the boat continues on its originally planned route, I think it would be located at approx 42N/42W at the time this weather is being shown, which puts it just at the edges of the orange/red to the left of the N in North Atlantic.  If they stay south (heading towards 39/39) then they would still not quite be at the white waypoint as the low moves east and then north.  Either way, it looks like they will see 20ish knots from the NW, but should stay out of the nastier weather to the north.

For reference, here is what the weather is showing they have out there right now:

Much more benign and you can see why they can't go due east easily as that would be nearly dead down-wind.  As the wind swings to the NW they can stop heading NE and head more East to stay south of the low.

Hope this helps interpret what they are talking about.

-- Gram

Locus Wx June 1

Hello Bill and crew -

Glad you are enjoying the SOG boost from the stream. Based on the latest altimetry data, to stay in the best current from your morning position, head to a waypoint of about 40 10N/53 00W, then to 39 45N/52 00W, and on to 39 15N/51 15W. From that point, you will be moving out of the 3-4 knot current, and into much lighter current speeds, so you can head due east. Of course, alterations for sailing angles through this period are fine.

Winds will be nearly due W through this afternoon and into the evening with speeds in the 20-24 knot range. Seas will be running 6-8 feet. The wind shift should occur during the mid to late evening hours, likely to N initially with speeds dropping off a bit to 16-20 knots. Seas will be a bit confused following the wind shift, but by then you should be east of  53W and into an area where the current is setting more toward the SE rather than to the E, so seas should not be that short or steep. Still, it may be rather uncomfortable for a little while.

Later at night, winds may veer to NNE for a while, but should back to N again by tomorrow afternoon as you move east of 50W. Wind speeds will drop back a little more to 14-18 knots, and seas will become less confused and subside to 5-7 feet.

Through tomorrow night and Friday winds will back to NNW as you continue east along about 39N, and wind speeds will run generally in the 13-17 knot range. Seas, however, will build bit through Friday in swells coming in from the NNW, and by later Friday will be running 6-8 feet. Swells will continue building through Friday night and by Saturday as you approach 40W swells of 8-11 feet are likely. Best to not move east of 40W until later Saturday.

Later in the weekend seas will ease and winds will back to WNW and become lighter.

The next low now looks as though it will track a bit farther north than has been anticipated, probably along about 42-43N through the weekend, reaching 40W later Sunday night, then intensifying as it continues east to the north of the Azores through the first half of next week. It will probably produce gales and seas of 12 feet or more as far south as 40N between 40W and 30W early next week. This could mean that your turn to the north might need to be delayed a bit longer, waiting for the low to move east of your longitude in order to avoid the stronger winds and seas. This could be around Tuesday or so near 30W.

Any interest in visiting the Azores??

Email with any questions.

SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 5 post #2

DATE: Wednesday, 1 June, 2016, 09:00 AM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 5 post #2

North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 40 08.8 N/53 16.4W
SOG 8.3 knots; COG 076 mag
TWS 18.8 kn; TWD: 280 mag

Conditions: We are broad reaching, 61 nm WSW of WP3. Mild squall around noon brought rain and a NW wind. NW eased and then rebuilt again from the wast. We are counting degrees as the wind is now ever-so-slowly shifting toward NW. We are presently headed farther north than desired, but I do not wish to fall off any more. Hence, we await the NW (to North) shift as it will bring us around. Very decent conditions today.

Several ships on AIS today, 50-70 miles north of us in shipping lanes from northern Europe to FL and south.

All is well on-board.

Best wishes,

Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna

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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 5 - Welcome to the North Atlantic

DATE: Wednesday, 1 June, 2016, 09:00 AM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 5

North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 39 35.0 N/54 25.3.0 W
SOG 9.5 knots; COG 068 mag
TWS 22.7 kn; TWD: 270 mag

Conditions: We are broad reaching. Wind has clocked from WSW to west over night and has increased to 22 knots this morning, some higher gusts. Seas are over 4-6 feet. Mostly cloudy and Bar is 2024 mb. We changed to a north-easterly course late yesterday afternoon.

Current situation: As is often the case, sailing angles were predominant in our decision-making and by yesterday afternoon, we just could not hold an easterly course without too much south in it. Ken McKinley noted that even though the wind and seas might be a touch higher with the original WP's, seas might be a bit smoother in the GS with wind and current aligned, and the northerly route would also see an earlier shift to northerly winds. We went with that yesterday and jibed around to a port tack. We have been sailing as broad a reach as we can, with AWA 137 degrees. The wind has clocked 20 degrees overnite which has helped our cause. Pam reports we found the Gulf Stream at 0500 this morning, and we are moving powerfully with current and wind behind us, averaging better than 9.25 knots SOG at this point. We are sailing double reefed main and jib, and I have seen SOG of 12.4 knots surfing down waves. We will hiss along the tops of some swells and the boat will be steady, quiet, and seemingly still. Most of the time we are riding along comfortably, reacting a bit to the swells, modest roll to starboard, small roll to port. Then, once in a while, we will catch a swell and it will be off to the races as we surf down it's face. There is a bit more action and roll with the fast ride. Overall, nothing is static out here, and I am anticipating a NW wind by late afternoon, to north overnite. The continued clocking will also help our cause as we will be looking to return to an easterly course later today. We will need to balance boat speed, wind, and seas, for comfort as wind direction and COG change.

Tactical: At this time I anticipate passing 15 miles east of WP2 at 1300 hours today, and have WP3 in my sights, bearing 125 nm at 079 degrees mag.

This morning, Denis noted a wet galley sole and indeed, it was salty. That breaks rule #1!!! It seems that the the sink drain loosened from the pipe adapter under the sink. Sea water was backing up into the sink in these quartering conditions, and then leaking into the galley cabinet from the loose coupling - I've always said that racing and ocean passages will expose any weakness in your boat. Hypothesis is that maybe the plastic cleaning box that nestles in there was mobile enough to loosen the drain coupling? Who knows. Drain was tightened and it's dry now. Rule #1 restored.

And, in case anyone is concerned that the North Atlantic will crimp our culinary style, we are doing just fine, thank you (we have a secret weapon - thanks, mom). Lunch yesterday was grilled queso fresco cheese quesadillas with scallions and hot pepper jelly, and Trudy's lentil soup was commended by all. Dinner time was a bit bouncy (hold on to your plates), but fortunately Trudy's meatloaf was superb and easy to serve, with mashed potatoes and grilled broccoli florets with sesame oil and a dash of soy sauce. Andrew made certain that desert cookies were not neglected.

Nothing on AIS since yesterday afternoon, no sightings, nothing...it's a big ocean out here.

Less than 2000 nm to go.

All is well on-board.

Best wishes,

Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna

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Wx Update 5/31

Hello Bill and crew -

First, regrading the route, a 39N/39W waypoint will work fine. You will miss any significant assist from the Gulf Stream along this route as you would remain south of the stream. If you want the assist from the stream, based on the latest altimetry data, you would need to head toward 40N/54W from your current position, then east to about 40N/52W, and from there you could head to 39N/39W.

Along a route toward 39N/39W, you will see SW winds veering to WSW later today with speeds of 14-18 knots. Tonight wind speeds will increase to 16-20 knots, and tomorrow speeds will increase to 18-22 knots. Seas will build to 5-7 feet later today, then to 6-8 feet tonight with similar levels tomorrow.

Tomorrow night W winds will increase to 21-25 knots with seas building to 7-9 feet, then on Thursday as you move east of 50W, winds will shift to N around daybreak and wind speeds will drop off to 17-21 knots in the afternoon. Seas will continue at 7-9 feet through the day, but will become more confused following the wind shift.

If you followed the more northern route, winds would be a little stronger, perhaps 3-4 knots from later tonight through tomorrow, and seas might be a foot or two higher, but the wind would be with the current in the Gulf Stream, and this could mean that the seas would be a bit longer. The wind shift to N would occur earlier on the northern route, probably before midnight Wednesday night, and thus the period of stronger winds ahead of the front would be shorter. Seas would still be confused after the wind shift, but likely no higher than those farther south.

By later Thursday or Thursday night, you would be in nearly the same position no matter which route is taken, perhaps 20 or 30 miles farther north on the more northern route. Winds Thursday night will back to NNW and drop off to 13-17 knots by Friday morning. Winds will back to NW later Friday and to WNW later Friday night with speeds increasing to 16-20 knots by Saturday morning. Seas will build through this period, mainly from the NW and by Friday evening will be running 9-12 feet near 39N/43W. Through the day Saturday WNW winds will ease a bit, but seas will continue at 9-12 feet before dropping off Saturday night.

It still appears that a low will be tracking east along 40N through the central Atlantic next weekend and will be centered near 41N/41W by Sunday evening. Easterly component winds will prevail to the north of this low up to about 46N or so later in the weekend. The low may intensify and head northeast early in the following week, reaching about 45N/36W by Monday evening. Increasing southwesterly winds will materialize to the south of its track early in that week, and the yacht should be able to take advantage of those on a route toward Ireland from about the 39M/39W waypoint. This is all nearly a week ahead at this point, so there is necessarily some uncertainty.

The choice of riding the Gulf Stream or staying to its south over the next day or two will probably not offer much different conditions. Slightly stronger winds, and slightly higher seas would prevail tonight and tomorrow on the northern route in the stream, but the period of strong winds prior to the wind shift would be shorter since the wind shift would occur earlier farther north. By later in the week, when higher seas are likely farther east, you would be back closer to 39N again, and conditions would not be that different compared with the southern route avoiding the stream. No real strong advice here, either option will probably work.

In the longer range, the decision about when to turn toward Ireland will depend on how the sea state develops east of 45W and the timing of the next low coming east, and also on the progress the boat makes between now and then. At this point, a turn later in the weekend when the seas drop off appears reasonable.

Email with any questions.

SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 4 Post #2

DATE:Tuesday, 31 May, 2016, 07:30 AM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 4 post #2

North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 37 57.0 N/57 36.0 W
SOG 7.8 knots; COG 103 mag
TWS 16.2 kn; TWD: 240 mag

Still headed east toward 39N/39W, leaving WP 2 and the best of the Gulf Stream current to our NE. We'll wait to hear Ken McKinley's guidance and we will see how this shakes out.

All is well on-board.

Best wishes,

Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna


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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 4

DATE:Tuesday, 31 May, 2016, 07:30 AM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 4

North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 37 57.0 N/57 36.0 W
SOG 8.4 knots; COG 099 mag
TWS 14.8 kn; TWD: 233 mag

Conditions: We are motorsailing in choppy seas. Wind has clocked over night (180 > 230) and is slowly building from 10-12 knots at midnight to 15 knots this morning.Scattered clouds surround us on the horizon, and Bar is 2027 mb. I have brought us on a more easterly course this morning which has improved our AWS, and SOG. Also for tactical considerations, see below.

Current situation: Engine went on at 1800 hours last evening, as seas were choppy and confused, and wind was too light to move us comfortably. We remain this morning with 2 reefs in the main as higher winds had been expected overnight. TWA is on the starboard quarter, 130 degrees or so, and I hope to have engine off soon although the short seas are rolling us around a bit, enough to shake out the sails when the larger ones go by. Still, within the hour we should be sailing.

Tactical: My GRIB review this morning suggests that the low to our east will weaken and slide NE, with development of another low that descends from the Newfoundland area on Wednesday, and sets itself up on Thursday and Friday near 45N from 37W to 30W respectively. I have run multiple routing options and heading east through Saturday morning toward a WP of 39N/39W will place us south enough to see 5-8 knots less wind, and with what I consider a significant reduction in sea state. Compared to the current route of choice it will be slower - 4 hours at least, if not 1/2 day slower, but I think that it would be worth considering 39/39 as a waypoint, none-the-less. Also, I do not see a new low establishing along 40N. I'll ask Ken McKinley to ponder this and we will see what he has to recommend.

We had fresh mozzarella cheese with tomato and pesto on basil-sundried tomato wraps yesterday for lunch, with chips. Andrew cooked up a bolognese sauce with ground turkey and we had that with linguini and green salad for dinner. Chocolate covered raisins for desert was also a hit, with some nice Barry's Tea from Ireland.

Several Cargo ships on AIS overnight.

All is well on-board.

Best wishes,

Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna


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