Updated Position

Corrected Position as of 1130 hrs eastern...

Sorry 'bout that. I did put in a new position, so must have mixed it up some way.

Current position 31 52.8N/68 07.9W
SOG: 8.99 knots
COG: 096 mag
Wind: 18.7 knots at 207 mag
Bar 1018

thanks

---------- Original Message ----------
To: Visions of Johanna
From: Ken McKinley
Subject: update position please
Date: 5/22/2016 9:43:50a

Good morning Bill and crew -

 It appears that this morning's update contained yesterday's position.
 Could you please update when you have a chance?
Working on update for you now, will send once I have updated position
info.
 Ken


Editor's Note:  This latest position puts them something like 175nm from Bermuda having travelled approx 225nm in the last 27.5 hours (approx 8.2 knot average).  Assuming they can maintain these same sorts of speeds which should be doable with the weather forecast, they should make landfall sometime before noon on the 23rd.  Don't be surprised if the next position report is delayed a bit as they might be busy on their approach into Bermuda and may wait until they are settled in port.

SY Visions of Johanna crossing Day 5

DATE: Sunday, 22 May, 2016, 8:00 AM Eastern

SY Visions of Johanna crossing day 5
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 31 39.2N/72 28.5W -- Editors Note -- This position is incorrect.  See Next Post
SOG 6.8 knots; COG 110 mag (see update below)

Conditions: 100% cloud cover. Bar 1018 mb (has dropped significantly past 24 hrs.). Front passed us 11:30 PM last night, with brief hard rain and then sudden windshift from SSW to SW. Andrew, on watch, was christened! After the front passed, the wind died down to less than 8 knots and we ran the engine for a short time, then wind returned, out of the SSW and built over 6 hours from 18 toward 24 knots by daybreak - we were making over 9 knots most all the night. A bit kinetic, but fast. Wind eased abruptly about 0700 this morning, as low as 8 knots, averaging 13 knots over the hour. Not sure why.

Current situation: We are making about 6.5-7 knots now. Wind 12.7 knots from 229 mag. Plan on rhumb line to BDA, but right now steering south of the rhumbline and staying higher on the wind to keep up speed. A bit rolly in the residual swell. No significant current; unfortunately, altimetry charts sent by Ken McKinley do not come through.

We had fishcakes for lunch yesterday, with chips and baby dill pickles...and an awesome spread of sashimi, sushi, and Maki rolls with a green salad for dinner. It is not often that you can enjoy "all you can eat" sushi of this caliber.

UPDATE prior to send - wind slowly increasing 13-14 knots from 230 mag. I suspect it will increase toward 20 as predicted by Ken McKinley. SOG 7.2 knots; COG 103 mag.

We have not sighted any ships for over 48 hours, although large tankers and commercial ships have been seen on AIS. VHF Radio remains silent. No internet. 4 people. Great boat. Big ocean. Lot's of flying fish.

All is well on-board.


Best wishes,

Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna

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It's A Boy!

I Have to interrupt your regularly scheduled broadcast to announce that last night Carmel gave birth to a healthy baby boy.  "Peanut" will have to do for a little while longer as we didn't have time last night to finalize a name.

6lb. 6oz with all fingers and toes and so far not showing any effects of Carmel's Gestational Diabetes so all is good.  The crew of Visions was alerted last night by e-mail and I will send through a photo and some more details now.

In depth weather discussions may have to wait a few days, but I will continue to post Ken's weather reports.....sounds like conditions are pretty much as expected and the boat is now headed mostly right towards Bermuda with about 400nm to go so if conditions stay good, they should get there in a bit more than 2 days.

--Gram

Weather Report from Ken McKinnely

Good morning Bill and crew -

Glad to see that the winds have come around for you. The route alteration this morning to make things better from a sailing angle and comfort perspective is fine. As the wind continues to veer, you’ll be able to point toward Bermuda, probably by tonight.

I’m not sure if you were able to receive the altimetry chart I sent the other day or not, so the one I have for you today I will send in a separate email. Between your current position and Bermuda, current speeds are all showing as less than a knot. You should be out of the adverse current that you mentioned fairly soon, and then there is some favorable current showing up east of 68W.

Winds this afternoon will veer toward SSE later on with speeds increasing to 19-23 knots and seas building to 4-6 feet. Numerous showers are likely this evening with winds likely gusting over 25 knots and seas perhaps pushing up to 7 feet at times, but by late evening the frontal boundary will have passed and winds with the front will shift to SSW and drop off to a bit under 20 knots. 

SSW winds tomorrow will push back above 20 knots with seas building to 5-7 feet and a few scattered showers at times. Tomorrow night and  Monday approaching Bermuda SSW winds in the 17-21 knot range are likely with seas at 4-6 feet, and the threat of a few showers will still be present.

Bottom line, some faster sailing over the next few days, but wet at times. Wind angle will get better once the wind shifts later this evening.

Email with any questions.

Ken

SY Visions of Johanna Crossing Day 4

Saturday, 21 May, 2016, 8:00 AM Eastern

SY Visions of Johanna crossing day 4
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 31 39.2N/72 28.5W
SOG 6.4 knots; COG 084 mag

Conditions: Wind has veered through nighttime hours from SE to nearly south this morning and wind speed slowly increased from 15 knots to 17-18 knots by daybreak.

We shut down the engine 1100 yesterday and have sailed nearly close hauled for the past 20 hours. Per Ken Mckinley's directive, we will not route ourselves north of BDA (32N) as SW winds 20-25 knots will develop as we approach and goal is to keep the building winds aft of the beam. We sailed overnight with autopilot on Wind Setting, 48 degrees apparent wind. Good news is, as anticipated, the wind did clock and essentially put us on a rhumbline to BD by dawn.By then we were close hauled and struggling to maintain boatspeed in the low sixes (as we are fighting a current). At 0600, with the southerly wind, I altered course and steered to Wind Setting 60 degrees apparent; I also opened the staysail. This has placed us about 10 degrees above the rhumbline, but it has really eased the ride. Today's GRIBS also (again) suggested a northerly routing loop towards BDA, so we will let this perk along while we keep an eye on 32N. At the same time, we anticipate further clocking to west of south which would carry us to Bermuda.

Current situation: We are currently sailing close a close reach, TWD 170-180 degrees ; SOG 6.4+ knots; There is an adverse current of at least a knot impeding progress. Speed has improved with course and sail changes, COG 86 degrees (Bearing to BDA 99 degrees) and SOG 6.8 knots. Seas remain reasonably calm, 4' SWly swell and a 2 foot southerly chop. 80% cloud cover. Barometer 1123 mb.

And yes, we caught another tuna yesterday. Thank you, Neptune. Sashimi tonight I think.

Dinner last night was Mexican themed, including pork loin fajitas with peppers and onions, black bean burritos, with pico de gallo, guacamole (can you guess who I was thinking of?) and shredded cheddar for toppings. Yum. And good news is...Andrew discovered the cookie jar and we'll be seeing more waterline soon.

We have not sighted any ships for over 48 hours, although large tankers and commercial ships have been seen on AIS. VHF Radio remains silent. No internet. 4 people. Great boat. Big ocean.

All is well on-board.


Best wishes,

Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna


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Weather Discussion Day 3

If looking at the map above, the red markers are position reports Bill has sent.  The yellow circles are the eddies Bill referred to in his Day 2 post (the one on the left has an image of the RTOFS  Gulf Stream simulation if you go to the interactive map).  The right most Green marker is Bermuda and the two lines are the Rhumb-line from Florida to Bermuda and my estimation of the route Expedition is suggesting (based on Bill's description).  Now for a bit more discussion on weather routing:

A bit late in the day, but wanted to explain a little bit about what Bill and Ken are weighing in terms of deciding how best to head towards Bermuda.

First a little bit about sailing performance.  Most boats, and VofJ in particular is fastest when reaching, i.e. the wind roughly coming across the side of the vessel 90 degrees to the direction you are heading.  Because we are a relatively shallow draft cruising boat, and because we have a permanently rigged Reacher that sits about 1' in front of the jib, we don't go upwind very well.  True wind upwind angle is something like 50-55 degrees off the wind.  A decent race boat might be closer to 40 degrees and the old IACC america's cup boats were closer to 35 degrees with such narrow beams, and deep efficient keels.  Similarly, because we don't carry a spinnaker (big colorful lightweight downwind sail), we don't go dead downwind all that well either.  We fixed that greatly when we added a whisker pole after our first Bermuda race so we can pole out the reacher and go dead down-wind pretty well, but we don't like to run that at night due ot reduced maneuverability and it is a lot of work to set up.  Where VofJ goes REALLY well is with a true wind angle of about 120 degrees from the bow.  Because of the speed of the boat going forward, the apparent wind will be something like only 80 degrees, but this is where she really flies and the polar data I described earlier that we feed into Expedition tells the software this information in very detailed form.

The computer knows that it is worth extra distance to keep the wind on the beam and not go either too close to the wind, or too far away from it.  Add to that the ocean currents that spin off the gulf stream and the computer software is suggesting that the boat make a dogleg towards Bermuda, heading further north now, and then bending back east when the wind is expected to change to a south-westerly direction.  This theoretically allows the boat to sail a bit further off the wind right now when going upwind which will help it go faster now and then later when the wind changes to the SW, it will keep the wind more on the beam than the stern which is again faster.

The "danger" of that course that Ken is warning about is that if the wind goes more southerly than south-westerly and you actually go further north than Bermuda, then you have to keep going upwind the whole way which would be slower and you would have added all that extra distance as well.

The software simulations are only as good as the data you feed into them and weather forecasts are just that, a forecast, not a certainty, so Ken is suggesting staying a bit prudent by following the favorable current and  Easterly wind north now, but not so far that if the wind doesn't swing all the way to the SW, you aren't forced to beat the whole way to Bermuda.

Generally on a race course you want to be on the "inside" of a wind shift.  i.e. if the wind is going to shift towards the right (Clockwise), then you want to go right at the beginning, so later you can come from that side and be "lifted" to your destination.  Ocean racing and passage making is a bit different as the distances are further and you aren't just going upwind and downwind, so in this case is looks like it might be better to go left early as the shift to the right looks to be almost 180 degrees, so you can end up ahead by sailing a little futher off the wind now, and then a little closer to the wind when it comes around from behind you....anyway, that is the idea....only time will tell.

--Gram

Weather Update from Ken McKinley

Good morning Bill and crew -

Continuing your current heading toward the waypoint is probably fine in the short term, although I would also suggest that you begin to turn more to the east as the wind allows. I would rather see you remain at or south of Bermuda’s latitude given the conditions that will prevail for your approach to the island early next week.

For today, ESE winds will push up to 15 knots this afternoon. Similar conditions are likely this evening, then later at night more veering toward SE is likely with speeds picking up a bit. Tomorrow winds will veer to SSE and increase to 20 knots or a bit more. Tomorrow night a weakening front will push east across the route, and will produce some rain, perhaps even a few downpours. Winds will shift from SSE to SSW as the front passes. Wind speeds may push up to 25 knots ahead of the front, but will drop back to 20 knots or a bit less behind it. Timing of the frontal passage will probably be late at night, close to daybreak Sunday.

SSW winds will veer slightly toward SW during Sunday, speeds 15-20 knots. Maybe a stray shower. Sunday night winds will back to SSW and increase to 20-25 knots with a few more scattered showers, then on Monday similar conditions are likely for the approach to Bermuda, winds perhaps backing a bit more toward S.

As noted above, your current heading is fine, but as the wind begins to veer tomorrow, I would suggest slowly turning more toward the east, basically following the wind around as it veers. After you exit the favorable current you are in now, I don’t see much of consequence the rest of the way. Less than a knot in general and it’s not worth chasing in my opinion. I would allow the wind to dictate your routing decisions. With significant southerly winds for the approach to Bermuda early next week, you do not want to be north of the island at that point.

Email with any questions.

Ken