Hello Bill and crew -
First, regrading the route, a 39N/39W waypoint will work fine. You will miss any significant assist from the Gulf Stream along this route as you would remain south of the stream. If you want the assist from the stream, based on the latest altimetry data, you would need to head toward 40N/54W from your current position, then east to about 40N/52W, and from there you could head to 39N/39W.
Along a route toward 39N/39W, you will see SW winds veering to WSW later today with speeds of 14-18 knots. Tonight wind speeds will increase to 16-20 knots, and tomorrow speeds will increase to 18-22 knots. Seas will build to 5-7 feet later today, then to 6-8 feet tonight with similar levels tomorrow.
Tomorrow night W winds will increase to 21-25 knots with seas building to 7-9 feet, then on Thursday as you move east of 50W, winds will shift to N around daybreak and wind speeds will drop off to 17-21 knots in the afternoon. Seas will continue at 7-9 feet through the day, but will become more confused following the wind shift.
If you followed the more northern route, winds would be a little stronger, perhaps 3-4 knots from later tonight through tomorrow, and seas might be a foot or two higher, but the wind would be with the current in the Gulf Stream, and this could mean that the seas would be a bit longer. The wind shift to N would occur earlier on the northern route, probably before midnight Wednesday night, and thus the period of stronger winds ahead of the front would be shorter. Seas would still be confused after the wind shift, but likely no higher than those farther south.
By later Thursday or Thursday night, you would be in nearly the same position no matter which route is taken, perhaps 20 or 30 miles farther north on the more northern route. Winds Thursday night will back to NNW and drop off to 13-17 knots by Friday morning. Winds will back to NW later Friday and to WNW later Friday night with speeds increasing to 16-20 knots by Saturday morning. Seas will build through this period, mainly from the NW and by Friday evening will be running 9-12 feet near 39N/43W. Through the day Saturday WNW winds will ease a bit, but seas will continue at 9-12 feet before dropping off Saturday night.
It still appears that a low will be tracking east along 40N through the central Atlantic next weekend and will be centered near 41N/41W by Sunday evening. Easterly component winds will prevail to the north of this low up to about 46N or so later in the weekend. The low may intensify and head northeast early in the following week, reaching about 45N/36W by Monday evening. Increasing southwesterly winds will materialize to the south of its track early in that week, and the yacht should be able to take advantage of those on a route toward Ireland from about the 39M/39W waypoint. This is all nearly a week ahead at this point, so there is necessarily some uncertainty.
The choice of riding the Gulf Stream or staying to its south over the next day or two will probably not offer much different conditions. Slightly stronger winds, and slightly higher seas would prevail tonight and tomorrow on the northern route in the stream, but the period of strong winds prior to the wind shift would be shorter since the wind shift would occur earlier farther north. By later in the week, when higher seas are likely farther east, you would be back closer to 39N again, and conditions would not be that different compared with the southern route avoiding the stream. No real strong advice here, either option will probably work.
In the longer range, the decision about when to turn toward Ireland will depend on how the sea state develops east of 45W and the timing of the next low coming east, and also on the progress the boat makes between now and then. At this point, a turn later in the weekend when the seas drop off appears reasonable.
Email with any questions.
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 4 Post #2
DATE:Tuesday, 31 May, 2016, 07:30 AM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 4 post #2
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 37 57.0 N/57 36.0 W
SOG 7.8 knots; COG 103 mag
TWS 16.2 kn; TWD: 240 mag
Still headed east toward 39N/39W, leaving WP 2 and the best of the Gulf Stream current to our NE. We'll wait to hear Ken McKinley's guidance and we will see how this shakes out.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 4 post #2
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 37 57.0 N/57 36.0 W
SOG 7.8 knots; COG 103 mag
TWS 16.2 kn; TWD: 240 mag
Still headed east toward 39N/39W, leaving WP 2 and the best of the Gulf Stream current to our NE. We'll wait to hear Ken McKinley's guidance and we will see how this shakes out.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 4
DATE:Tuesday, 31 May, 2016, 07:30 AM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 4
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 37 57.0 N/57 36.0 W
SOG 8.4 knots; COG 099 mag
TWS 14.8 kn; TWD: 233 mag
Conditions: We are motorsailing in choppy seas. Wind has clocked over night (180 > 230) and is slowly building from 10-12 knots at midnight to 15 knots this morning.Scattered clouds surround us on the horizon, and Bar is 2027 mb. I have brought us on a more easterly course this morning which has improved our AWS, and SOG. Also for tactical considerations, see below.
Current situation: Engine went on at 1800 hours last evening, as seas were choppy and confused, and wind was too light to move us comfortably. We remain this morning with 2 reefs in the main as higher winds had been expected overnight. TWA is on the starboard quarter, 130 degrees or so, and I hope to have engine off soon although the short seas are rolling us around a bit, enough to shake out the sails when the larger ones go by. Still, within the hour we should be sailing.
Tactical: My GRIB review this morning suggests that the low to our east will weaken and slide NE, with development of another low that descends from the Newfoundland area on Wednesday, and sets itself up on Thursday and Friday near 45N from 37W to 30W respectively. I have run multiple routing options and heading east through Saturday morning toward a WP of 39N/39W will place us south enough to see 5-8 knots less wind, and with what I consider a significant reduction in sea state. Compared to the current route of choice it will be slower - 4 hours at least, if not 1/2 day slower, but I think that it would be worth considering 39/39 as a waypoint, none-the-less. Also, I do not see a new low establishing along 40N. I'll ask Ken McKinley to ponder this and we will see what he has to recommend.
We had fresh mozzarella cheese with tomato and pesto on basil-sundried tomato wraps yesterday for lunch, with chips. Andrew cooked up a bolognese sauce with ground turkey and we had that with linguini and green salad for dinner. Chocolate covered raisins for desert was also a hit, with some nice Barry's Tea from Ireland.
Several Cargo ships on AIS overnight.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 4
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 37 57.0 N/57 36.0 W
SOG 8.4 knots; COG 099 mag
TWS 14.8 kn; TWD: 233 mag
Conditions: We are motorsailing in choppy seas. Wind has clocked over night (180 > 230) and is slowly building from 10-12 knots at midnight to 15 knots this morning.Scattered clouds surround us on the horizon, and Bar is 2027 mb. I have brought us on a more easterly course this morning which has improved our AWS, and SOG. Also for tactical considerations, see below.
Current situation: Engine went on at 1800 hours last evening, as seas were choppy and confused, and wind was too light to move us comfortably. We remain this morning with 2 reefs in the main as higher winds had been expected overnight. TWA is on the starboard quarter, 130 degrees or so, and I hope to have engine off soon although the short seas are rolling us around a bit, enough to shake out the sails when the larger ones go by. Still, within the hour we should be sailing.
Tactical: My GRIB review this morning suggests that the low to our east will weaken and slide NE, with development of another low that descends from the Newfoundland area on Wednesday, and sets itself up on Thursday and Friday near 45N from 37W to 30W respectively. I have run multiple routing options and heading east through Saturday morning toward a WP of 39N/39W will place us south enough to see 5-8 knots less wind, and with what I consider a significant reduction in sea state. Compared to the current route of choice it will be slower - 4 hours at least, if not 1/2 day slower, but I think that it would be worth considering 39/39 as a waypoint, none-the-less. Also, I do not see a new low establishing along 40N. I'll ask Ken McKinley to ponder this and we will see what he has to recommend.
We had fresh mozzarella cheese with tomato and pesto on basil-sundried tomato wraps yesterday for lunch, with chips. Andrew cooked up a bolognese sauce with ground turkey and we had that with linguini and green salad for dinner. Chocolate covered raisins for desert was also a hit, with some nice Barry's Tea from Ireland.
Several Cargo ships on AIS overnight.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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Monday, May 30, 2016
Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 3 post 3
DATE: Monday, 30 May, 2016, 13:45 PM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 3, post #3
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 37 01.2 N/59 30.1 W
SOG 5.8 knots; COG 0072 mag
TWS 9.4 kn; TWD: 168 mag
Current situation: Seas are building from the NE, 4-6 feet. We are sailing, may elect to augment with the iron jenny for a while.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 3, post #3
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 37 01.2 N/59 30.1 W
SOG 5.8 knots; COG 0072 mag
TWS 9.4 kn; TWD: 168 mag
Current situation: Seas are building from the NE, 4-6 feet. We are sailing, may elect to augment with the iron jenny for a while.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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Weather Update 5/30
Good afternoon Bill and crew -
Good to see that the less than ideal wind direction didn’t last too long.
Winds will continue to veer this evening and will likely be SSW by sunset. The veering will continue overnight with winds tomorrow morning SW. Wind speeds will gradually increase through tonight and will be running 18-22 knots by tomorrow morning.
Winds will veer to WSW tomorrow with speeds in the 20-24 knot range, then speeds will increase to 22-26 knots tomorrow night and continue on Wednesday as you move east toward 50W. Winds will shift to NW at similar speeds Wednesday night, and these conditions will continue through Thursday.
Seas will build to 5-7 feet later tomorrow and to 6-9 feet on Wednesday. Seas will build a bit more through Wednesday night and will be running 8-11 feet by Thursday, perhaps building a bit more later Thursday. Moderate NW winds will continue through Friday with seas running 10-13 feet.
Winds will back to WNW by early in the weekend near 40W and speeds will ease off a bit with seas subsiding. That will likely be the time to consider picking up a great circle route toward Ireland
That next low coming along from the west later in the weekend will likely remain near 40N into early next week, and it should be possible to be north of its influence by then.
The previous waypoints still look good. You will likely enter the stream a bit before reaching the 38N/58W waypoint and should have a good ride in the stream for a few days. Winds will be stronger through this period, but with the stream, so seas should remain manageable.
Bottom line, some nice sailing through this evening and tonight, then somewhat rigorous conditions for a few days, but excellent boat speed. Best to be prepared for somewhat more spartan meals as the boat motion will increase!
Ken
Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 3 post 2
DATE: Monday, 30 May, 2016, 13:45 PM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 3, post #2
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 36 410 N/60 00.1 W - Note latitude of 36
SOG 7.5 knots; COG 061 mag
TWS 11 kn; TWD: 139 mag
Conditions: Wind came up steadily this morning, and engine was off at 1045 hours. We have been sailing nicely, close hauled 50 degrees AWA, with full mainsail, staysail, and jib.
Current situation: Seas are modest as they have not had time to build due to gradual increase and clocking. True wind is just forward of the beam and we are slipping through the water quite nicely without significant seas as yet. Scattered clouds, mostly sunny. Bar 1029 mb.
NOTE: Please be advised that I barely had me coffee this morning and I mistakenly put us at latitude 38, not 36. Please note the correction as above.
We almost caught a bird..
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 3, post #2
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 36 410 N/60 00.1 W - Note latitude of 36
SOG 7.5 knots; COG 061 mag
TWS 11 kn; TWD: 139 mag
Conditions: Wind came up steadily this morning, and engine was off at 1045 hours. We have been sailing nicely, close hauled 50 degrees AWA, with full mainsail, staysail, and jib.
Current situation: Seas are modest as they have not had time to build due to gradual increase and clocking. True wind is just forward of the beam and we are slipping through the water quite nicely without significant seas as yet. Scattered clouds, mostly sunny. Bar 1029 mb.
NOTE: Please be advised that I barely had me coffee this morning and I mistakenly put us at latitude 38, not 36. Please note the correction as above.
We almost caught a bird..
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 3
DATE: Monday, 30 May, 2016, 9:00 AM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 3
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 38 19.8 N/60 21.1 W -- corrected 36 19.8N/60 21.1W (See Post #2)
SOG 6.1 knots (5.8 VMG); COG 047 mag
TWS 8.9 kn; TWD: 089 mag
Conditions: We are motorsailing in choppy seas. Wind has clocked from NW to NE over night with a few showers, and recently to the east, as anticipated. Barometer 1018.5 mb. Winds eased through the night. Sky is clearing this morning behind the front.
Current situation: Engine went on at 2145 hours last evening, and we are motor sailing. We are making 5 1/2 plus knots toward WP1 - but cannot make the bearing of 065 degrees right now. We do expect moderate winds to slowly clock through the day, and we will turn to starboard as it allows. The current course was selected as it a much more comfortable ride than motoring dead upwind...and we certainly have enough miles to go to make the course alteration insignificant. I reefed last evening as the frontal passage was expected, and will shake it out shortly.
We had chicken salad wraps (tortilla or lettuce) yesterday for lunch, with dill pickles and chips. Dinner was good 'ol burgers and home fries with a green salad. We were successful with our Easi-Yo, and had Greek yogurt over peach slices for desert. Definitely a winner.
No longer do we hear Bermuda radio on the VHF. Several Cargo ships on AIS overnight.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 3
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 38 19.8 N/60 21.1 W -- corrected 36 19.8N/60 21.1W (See Post #2)
SOG 6.1 knots (5.8 VMG); COG 047 mag
TWS 8.9 kn; TWD: 089 mag
Conditions: We are motorsailing in choppy seas. Wind has clocked from NW to NE over night with a few showers, and recently to the east, as anticipated. Barometer 1018.5 mb. Winds eased through the night. Sky is clearing this morning behind the front.
Current situation: Engine went on at 2145 hours last evening, and we are motor sailing. We are making 5 1/2 plus knots toward WP1 - but cannot make the bearing of 065 degrees right now. We do expect moderate winds to slowly clock through the day, and we will turn to starboard as it allows. The current course was selected as it a much more comfortable ride than motoring dead upwind...and we certainly have enough miles to go to make the course alteration insignificant. I reefed last evening as the frontal passage was expected, and will shake it out shortly.
We had chicken salad wraps (tortilla or lettuce) yesterday for lunch, with dill pickles and chips. Dinner was good 'ol burgers and home fries with a green salad. We were successful with our Easi-Yo, and had Greek yogurt over peach slices for desert. Definitely a winner.
No longer do we hear Bermuda radio on the VHF. Several Cargo ships on AIS overnight.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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Sunday, May 29, 2016
Ken McKinley Weather Update 29 May
Good afternoon Bill and crew -
Glad to hear that you are into your underway routine.
You’ll continue to have rather light WNW winds through this evening, then after midnight tonight you will cross the weak frontal boundary, and winds will shift to SE, still likely, generally 9 knots or less. There could be a shower or two with the front, but nothing heavy, and nothing of any significant duration.
Winds tomorrow will slowly veer to SSE and will increase to 9-13 knots in the afternoon. Tomorrow evening as you move into the Gulf Stream, winds will veer to SSW and increase to 12-16 knots; later at night winds will veer to SW.
On Tuesday winds will veer toward WSW in the afternoon with speeds in the 15-19 knot range, and seas will build to 5-7 feet. WSW winds will increase to 19-23 knots Tuesday night and these winds will continue through Wednesday.
Later Wednesday night or early Thursday winds will shift to N at 16-20 knots with seas still in the 5-7 foot range, but perhaps a bit confused for a while after the wind shift. N winds will ease a bit later Thursday, then will back to NW by Friday with speeds in the 14-18 knot range. Seas may build to 6-9 feet on Friday, mainly in swells from the north.
Friday night and into Saturday look for winds to back to WNW along the route with speeds likely staying at or below 20 knots as it now appears that the low will move out of the way a bit more quickly than was earlier anticipated.
The current route looks good through much of next week. Some adjustment may be needed late in the week or next weekend, perhaps an earlier turn to the north as another low appears that it will track east along about 40N through the central Atlantic early in the following week, and it may be useful to get north of that low and miss most of its impact. Lots of time to consider those options, though, and also to see how the system will eventually evolve.
Email with any questions.
Ken
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 2 post #3
DATE: Sunday, 29 May, 2016, 17:50 PM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 2 post #3
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 35 03.5N/61 35.6W
SOG 7.5 knots; COG 078 mag
TWS 13.5 kn; TWD: 309 mag
Conditions: Wind has steadily built from the port quarter.Still sunny but with more clouds, probably 30% - 40% cover with cumulus that have flat bottoms. No convective tops.
Current situation: We have been sailing beautifully since 1445 hrs. with reacher and full main, with apparent wind just aft the beam at 12-13 knots. We have a bit more east in our course (WP1 Bearing 061 mag) than ideal. Plan will be to substitute the jib for the night,head up a bit if not too powerful, and put a reef in the main if wind holds.
We still hear Bermuda radio on the VHF.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 2 post #3
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 35 03.5N/61 35.6W
SOG 7.5 knots; COG 078 mag
TWS 13.5 kn; TWD: 309 mag
Conditions: Wind has steadily built from the port quarter.Still sunny but with more clouds, probably 30% - 40% cover with cumulus that have flat bottoms. No convective tops.
Current situation: We have been sailing beautifully since 1445 hrs. with reacher and full main, with apparent wind just aft the beam at 12-13 knots. We have a bit more east in our course (WP1 Bearing 061 mag) than ideal. Plan will be to substitute the jib for the night,head up a bit if not too powerful, and put a reef in the main if wind holds.
We still hear Bermuda radio on the VHF.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 2 post #2
DATE: Sunday, 29 May, 2016, 11:30 AM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 2 post #2
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 34 33.1N/62 20.3W
SOG 7.3 knots; COG 0658 mag
TWS 5-9 kn; TWD: 297 mag
Conditions: Wind has come up a bit from the port quarter.
Current situation: We are making just over 7 knots now, motor sailing with the reacher. Wind is not steady, though, tending back to L&V, and the reacher is coming down once again. Jib up. And as for our fishing, Denis says that there must be no fish in this part of the ocean.
NOTE: I have re-run GRIBS and potential courses, finding that the issue of upwind sailing with wind against current seems to have disappeared. I am not getting the same route, and wind conditions stay closer to or aft of the beam. I think that the computer/Expedition chose that particular option once but does not wish to find it again. Fine with me. In the end, tactical decisions will come as time gets closer.
We still hear Bermuda radio on the VHF.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 2 post #2
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 34 33.1N/62 20.3W
SOG 7.3 knots; COG 0658 mag
TWS 5-9 kn; TWD: 297 mag
Conditions: Wind has come up a bit from the port quarter.
Current situation: We are making just over 7 knots now, motor sailing with the reacher. Wind is not steady, though, tending back to L&V, and the reacher is coming down once again. Jib up. And as for our fishing, Denis says that there must be no fish in this part of the ocean.
NOTE: I have re-run GRIBS and potential courses, finding that the issue of upwind sailing with wind against current seems to have disappeared. I am not getting the same route, and wind conditions stay closer to or aft of the beam. I think that the computer/Expedition chose that particular option once but does not wish to find it again. Fine with me. In the end, tactical decisions will come as time gets closer.
We still hear Bermuda radio on the VHF.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 2
DATE: Sunday, 29 May, 2016, 8:00 AM Atlantic
SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 2
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 34 15.3N/62 41.2 W
SOG 6.5 knots; COG 064 mag
TWS 4.1 kn; TWD: 287 mag
Conditions: We are motoring in minimal seas and wind, a glassy 2-3 foot swell. Pam had a boat on AIS 32 nm out last night, other than that, simply a flat horizon and gently rippled waters.
Current situation: We are making about 6.5 knots now, essentially motoring with the mainsail up, and we might have another day or two like this; it looks like a large High has parked itself over us, and the High will drift slowly NE as we follow. Winds will slowly build by Tuesday into Wednesday, I think, and I am already looking ahead to Thursday and Friday of this week as we will be situated between a low to our east and a building high to our west. I see some headwinds at that time from late Wednesday or Thursday morning through Friday as we pass through WP's 1 and 2.
As I look further into it, we hopefully would be riding a favorable Gulf Stream current - several knots it looks like - but we might end up in a wind against (significant GS) current zone. An unhappy sea state can result from those conditions, and I will spend the next day or two watching and considering an alternative such as ...just don't be there! We'll see what develops.
Everyone is settling in. Fishing lines are out and Denis supplied us with his "special super-duper can't miss) plug. So I am hopeful.
We had (Trudy's homemade) hummus on wraps with lettuce and side of Goldfish for crunch for lunch yesterday, (Goldfish crackers, not the swimming kind). I think that Andrew's exact words were "That Trudy is a fantastic lady". A nice simple dinner of pan grilled pork loins, roasted potatoes, and garlic bread with green salad was enjoyed below at the table...served on real plates as it was so calm.
We still hear Bermuda radio on the VHF.
320 nm to WP 1.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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SY Visions of Johanna Bermuda to Dingle, Ireland Crossing Day 2
North Atlantic Ocean
Position: 34 15.3N/62 41.2 W
SOG 6.5 knots; COG 064 mag
TWS 4.1 kn; TWD: 287 mag
Conditions: We are motoring in minimal seas and wind, a glassy 2-3 foot swell. Pam had a boat on AIS 32 nm out last night, other than that, simply a flat horizon and gently rippled waters.
Current situation: We are making about 6.5 knots now, essentially motoring with the mainsail up, and we might have another day or two like this; it looks like a large High has parked itself over us, and the High will drift slowly NE as we follow. Winds will slowly build by Tuesday into Wednesday, I think, and I am already looking ahead to Thursday and Friday of this week as we will be situated between a low to our east and a building high to our west. I see some headwinds at that time from late Wednesday or Thursday morning through Friday as we pass through WP's 1 and 2.
As I look further into it, we hopefully would be riding a favorable Gulf Stream current - several knots it looks like - but we might end up in a wind against (significant GS) current zone. An unhappy sea state can result from those conditions, and I will spend the next day or two watching and considering an alternative such as ...just don't be there! We'll see what develops.
Everyone is settling in. Fishing lines are out and Denis supplied us with his "special super-duper can't miss) plug. So I am hopeful.
We had (Trudy's homemade) hummus on wraps with lettuce and side of Goldfish for crunch for lunch yesterday, (Goldfish crackers, not the swimming kind). I think that Andrew's exact words were "That Trudy is a fantastic lady". A nice simple dinner of pan grilled pork loins, roasted potatoes, and garlic bread with green salad was enjoyed below at the table...served on real plates as it was so calm.
We still hear Bermuda radio on the VHF.
320 nm to WP 1.
All is well on-board.
Best wishes,
Bill Strassberg and crew, SY Visions of Johanna
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Saturday, May 28, 2016
Expedition Weather Routing
Bill sent me the final pre-departure Expedition Weather Routing Results and I thought I would have a little discussion about it.
Below are the optimal routing results in Table form. The inputs to this routing would include GFS wind, Wave, pressure, and rain information as well as RTOFS Ocean Current (direction, speed, sea temp). Expedition combines that with performance data for the boat in the form of a polar diagram as well as some factors that reduce the predicted speed of the boat based on significant wave height to try to seek lower wave heights.
The output shows as series of waypoints (route) that it suggest the boat go along with the predicted time the boat will be at that location, the forecast True Wind Direction (TWD) and True Wind Speed (TWS) along with the True Wind Angle (TWA - that is the angle between the bow and the True Wind). It calculates the expected Boat Speed (Bsp) that the boat will go in those conditions and the headsail that it presumes you would be using to make that speed. J1 is the Jib, Code0 is the Reacher, and Engine is output when it predicts that you would be best served to run the engine in those conditions to keep speed up, either because the wind is too light, or too close to the bow to make good progress at sail alone. It then gives your Heading to the next waypoint (Brg) and the Distance to the next calculation point. Shorter routes get waypoints closer together and longer routes space the waypoints out to simplify the calculation a bit. It also lists the forecast atmospheric pressure (MSLP) Rain, and Significant Wave Height, and finally the Lat/Lon of the calculation waypoint.
Below are the optimal routing results in Table form. The inputs to this routing would include GFS wind, Wave, pressure, and rain information as well as RTOFS Ocean Current (direction, speed, sea temp). Expedition combines that with performance data for the boat in the form of a polar diagram as well as some factors that reduce the predicted speed of the boat based on significant wave height to try to seek lower wave heights.
The output shows as series of waypoints (route) that it suggest the boat go along with the predicted time the boat will be at that location, the forecast True Wind Direction (TWD) and True Wind Speed (TWS) along with the True Wind Angle (TWA - that is the angle between the bow and the True Wind). It calculates the expected Boat Speed (Bsp) that the boat will go in those conditions and the headsail that it presumes you would be using to make that speed. J1 is the Jib, Code0 is the Reacher, and Engine is output when it predicts that you would be best served to run the engine in those conditions to keep speed up, either because the wind is too light, or too close to the bow to make good progress at sail alone. It then gives your Heading to the next waypoint (Brg) and the Distance to the next calculation point. Shorter routes get waypoints closer together and longer routes space the waypoints out to simplify the calculation a bit. It also lists the forecast atmospheric pressure (MSLP) Rain, and Significant Wave Height, and finally the Lat/Lon of the calculation waypoint.
| Atlantic Daylight Time | Twd°M | Tws | Twa | Bsp | Sail | Brg°M | Dist nm | MSLP | Rain | SigWave H | Latitude | Longitude |
| 5/28/2016 9:30 | 124° | 8 | 85° | 5.8 | J1 | 039° | 36.29 | 1025.2 | 0 | 0.9 | 32 22.854n | 064 38.112w |
| 5/28/2016 15:28 | 134° | 6.3 | 88° | 6.3 | Code0 | 046° | 36.31 | 1026 | 0 | 0.9 | 32 55.940n | 064 20.411w |
| 5/28/2016 21:07 | 146° | 5.3 | 100° | 6.5 | Code0 | 046° | 36.27 | 1025.7 | 0 | 0.8 | 33 27.016n | 063 57.972w |
| 5/29/2016 2:43 | 163° | 2.4 | 117° | 6.4 | Engine | 046° | 36.31 | 1025.6 | 0 | 0.8 | 33 58.138n | 063 35.587w |
| 5/29/2016 8:23 | 279° | 3 | -133° | 6.4 | Engine | 052° | 36.42 | 1025.8 | 0 | 0.7 | 34 29.230n | 063 12.905w |
| 5/29/2016 14:09 | 303° | 6.6 | -105° | 6.1 | Code0 | 048° | 36.39 | 1025 | 0 | 0.7 | 34 58.255n | 062 46.146w |
| 5/29/2016 20:13 | 320° | 7.8 | -90° | 5.9 | J1 | 050° | 36.47 | 1024 | 0 | 0.9 | 35 28.952n | 062 22.232w |
| 5/30/2016 2:32 | 331° | 8 | -84° | 5.8 | J1 | 055° | 36.57 | 1022.7 | 0.02 | 1 | 35 59.161n | 061 57.070w |
| 5/30/2016 8:32 | 090° | 4.7 | 35° | 6.4 | Engine | 055° | 36.67 | 1022.9 | 0.05 | 1.1 | 36 27.668n | 061 28.672w |
| 5/30/2016 13:55 | 160° | 9.8 | 95° | 7.2 | Code0 | 065° | 37.28 | 1022.5 | 0.01 | 1.1 | 36 56.314n | 061 00.120w |
| 5/30/2016 19:16 | 177° | 9.9 | 101° | 7.4 | Code0 | 077° | 38.77 | 1022.4 | 0 | 1.2 | 37 20.704n | 060 24.749w |
| 5/31/2016 0:29 | 195° | 11.9 | 107° | 8.3 | Code0 | 087° | 40.69 | 1021.6 | 0 | 1.4 | 37 39.653n | 059 42.114w |
| 5/31/2016 5:21 | 208° | 14.4 | 111° | 8.9 | Code0 | 096° | 42.71 | 1021.1 | 0 | 1.5 | 37 52.690n | 058 53.351w |
| 5/31/2016 10:12 | 220° | 15.8 | 121° | 8.9 | Code0 | 098° | 44.21 | 1021.1 | 0 | 1.6 | 38 00.000n | 058 00.000w |
| 5/31/2016 15:27 | 231° | 17.6 | 149° | 7.7 | Code0 | 082° | 45.15 | 1020.5 | 0 | 1.9 | 38 06.013n | 057 04.384w |
| 5/31/2016 21:26 | 246° | 18 | 160° | 7.5 | Code0 | 086° | 44.35 | 1020.1 | 0.03 | 2 | 38 24.658n | 056 12.022w |
| 6/1/2016 3:32 | 257° | 20.9 | -156° | 7.4 | Code0 | 053° | 51.69 | 1017.8 | 0.03 | 2.2 | 38 40.240n | 055 18.939w |
| 6/1/2016 10:34 | 270° | 22.2 | -145° | 7.3 | Code0 | 055° | 48.76 | 1016.6 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 39 21.654n | 054 39.128w |
| 6/1/2016 16:18 | 297° | 19.7 | -148° | 8 | Code0 | 086° | 48.45 | 1014.8 | 2.02 | 2.9 | 40 00.000n | 054 00.000w |
| 6/1/2016 22:00 | 325° | 16 | -125° | 8.4 | Code0 | 091° | 47.99 | 1015.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 40 17.039n | 053 00.669w |
| 6/2/2016 3:25 | 352° | 16.1 | -121° | 9 | Code0 | 114° | 43.31 | 1017.3 | 0.18 | 2.4 | 40 30.000n | 052 00.000w |
| 6/2/2016 8:04 | 011° | 20 | -117° | 9.8 | Code0 | 129° | 52.99 | 1018.4 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 40 24.456n | 051 03.557w |
| 6/2/2016 13:29 | 012° | 20 | -111° | 9.8 | J1 | 123° | 47.75 | 1019 | 0.09 | 2.3 | 40 03.848n | 049 59.605w |
| 6/2/2016 18:24 | 005° | 18.5 | -113° | 9.7 | Code0 | 119° | 47.38 | 1019.9 | 0.07 | 2.4 | 39 50.000n | 049 00.000w |
| 6/2/2016 23:23 | 356° | 18.7 | -117° | 9.7 | Code0 | 114° | 47.09 | 1019.5 | 0.06 | 2.5 | 39 39.274n | 047 59.979w |
| 6/3/2016 4:35 | 343° | 19.3 | -126° | 9 | Code0 | 109° | 46.9 | 1017.9 | 0.07 | 2.7 | 39 32.602n | 046 59.484w |
| 6/3/2016 10:05 | 326° | 19.2 | -158° | 7.7 | Code0 | 125° | 49.18 | 1016.2 | 0.09 | 2.8 | 39 29.845n | 045 58.795w |
| 6/3/2016 16:43 | 311° | 20.5 | -162° | 7.4 | Code0 | 113° | 47.52 | 1013.8 | 0.09 | 3.2 | 39 13.163n | 044 58.955w |
| 6/3/2016 23:31 | 303° | 22 | -100° | 9.1 | J1 | 043° | 84.97 | 1011.6 | 0.11 | 3.5 | 39 06.568n | 043 58.265w |
| 6/4/2016 9:16 | 323° | 21.3 | -114° | 9.5 | J1 | 076° | 46.65 | 1006.8 | 0.23 | 40 21.263n | 043 05.588w | |
| 6/4/2016 14:08 | 325° | 18.6 | -110° | 9.7 | Code0 | 075° | 46.07 | 1006.8 | 0.2 | 40 43.168n | 042 11.398w | |
| 6/4/2016 18:55 | 325° | 17.8 | -110° | 9.6 | Code0 | 076° | 45.46 | 1006.6 | 0.2 | 41 05.474n | 041 18.063w | |
| 6/4/2016 23:43 | 321° | 16.4 | -111° | 9.4 | Code0 | 073° | 45.45 | 1006.6 | 0.16 | 41 26.999n | 040 24.788w | |
| 6/5/2016 4:37 | 325° | 14.7 | -111° | 9.1 | Code0 | 075° | 44.82 | 1006.3 | 0.19 | 41 50.477n | 039 32.703w | |
| 6/5/2016 9:28 | 331° | 16.1 | -102° | 9.3 | Code0 | 073° | 44.81 | 1005.9 | 0.26 | 42 11.714n | 038 39.584w | |
| 6/5/2016 14:18 | 319° | 15.7 | -107° | 9.4 | Code0 | 065° | 45.53 | 1006.5 | 0.14 | 42 34.111n | 037 47.047w | |
| 6/5/2016 19:17 | 308° | 15.3 | -115° | 9.1 | Code0 | 063° | 45.44 | 1007.1 | 0.04 | 43 01.879n | 036 57.864w | |
| 6/6/2016 0:16 | 303° | 16.5 | -118° | 9.3 | Code0 | 061° | 45.32 | 1006.8 | 0.03 | 43 30.847n | 036 09.771w | |
| 6/6/2016 5:18 | 294° | 18.9 | -119° | 9.6 | Code0 | 053° | 46.72 | 1005.7 | 0.03 | 44 00.830n | 035 22.709w | |
| 6/6/2016 10:20 | 286° | 19.9 | -153° | 7.9 | Code0 | 079° | 43.66 | 1004.3 | 0.11 | 44 36.351n | 034 40.299w | |
| 6/6/2016 15:58 | 278° | 19.3 | -161° | 7.6 | Code0 | 079° | 43.67 | 1003.4 | 0.13 | 44 53.440n | 033 43.728w | |
| 6/6/2016 21:45 | 270° | 19.2 | -162° | 7.6 | Code0 | 071° | 43.41 | 1002.7 | 0.21 | 45 10.400n | 032 46.779w | |
| 6/7/2016 3:27 | 271° | 18.6 | -160° | 7.6 | Code0 | 071° | 43.36 | 1001.9 | 0.27 | 45 32.351n | 031 53.479w | |
| 6/7/2016 9:11 | 266° | 18.7 | -173° | 7.3 | Code0 | 079° | 43.57 | 1000.5 | 45 54.379n | 030 59.976w | ||
| 6/7/2016 15:11 | 260° | 17.9 | -179° | 7.2 | Code0 | 079° | 43.58 | 1001.3 | 46 11.098n | 030 02.007w | ||
| 6/7/2016 21:13 | 251° | 18 | -171° | 7.3 | Code0 | 062° | 43.67 | 1001.6 | 46 27.627n | 029 03.611w | ||
| 6/8/2016 2:58 | 276° | 18.7 | -131° | 8.4 | Code0 | 047° | 46.77 | 1003.2 | 46 54.762n | 028 13.732w | ||
| 6/8/2016 8:10 | 287° | 20.2 | -127° | 8.8 | Code0 | 054° | 44.06 | 1003 | 47 32.557n | 027 33.152w | ||
| 6/8/2016 13:08 | 289° | 17.4 | -124° | 8.9 | Code0 | 053° | 43.53 | 1003.8 | 48 04.683n | 026 48.254w | ||
| 6/8/2016 17:59 | 298° | 15.1 | -118° | 8.8 | Code0 | 056° | 42.01 | 1005.4 | 48 36.406n | 026 03.408w | ||
| 6/8/2016 22:39 | 306° | 15.1 | -116° | 8.9 | Code0 | 062° | 41.75 | 1006.5 | 49 05.395n | 025 17.208w | ||
| 6/9/2016 3:23 | 306° | 14.7 | -114° | 8.9 | Code0 | 060° | 41.74 | 1007.2 | 49 30.844n | 024 26.442w | ||
| 6/9/2016 8:02 | 304° | 15.3 | -111° | 9.2 | Code0 | 055° | 41.4 | 1008.1 | 49 57.705n | 023 37.001w | ||
| 6/9/2016 12:32 | 300° | 15.6 | -115° | 9.1 | Code0 | 056° | 40.74 | 1007.2 | 50 26.724n | 022 50.878w | ||
| 6/9/2016 17:11 | 290° | 15.9 | -144° | 7.5 | Code0 | 074° | 40.6 | 1006 | 50 54.733n | 022 04.200w | ||
| 6/9/2016 22:43 | 277° | 16.1 | -165° | 7 | Code0 | 083° | 42.09 | 1005.4 | 51 11.964n | 021 05.705w | ||
| 6/10/2016 4:56 | 272° | 12.7 | 171° | 6.5 | Code0 | 102° | 50.81 | 1005.2 | 51 23.580n | 020 01.002w | ||
| 6/10/2016 12:46 | 266° | 7.8 | 176° | 6.5 | Engine | 090° | 44.53 | 1005.5 | 51 20.350n | 018 39.788w | ||
| 6/10/2016 19:42 | 277° | 5.2 | -173° | 6.3 | Engine | 090° | 44.59 | 1005.5 | 51 26.194n | 017 29.048w | ||
| 6/11/2016 2:41 | 050° | 4 | -40° | 6.4 | Engine | 090° | 44.62 | 1005.8 | 51 31.591n | 016 17.980w | ||
| 6/11/2016 9:44 | 068° | 9.5 | -28° | 6.3 | Engine | 096° | 47.46 | 1006.4 | 51 36.565n | 015 06.644w | ||
| 6/11/2016 17:16 | 065° | 8.8 | -24° | 6.3 | Engine | 089° | 44.61 | 1007.3 | 51 36.955n | 013 50.224w | ||
| 6/12/2016 0:19 | 045° | 8 | -39° | 6.4 | Engine | 084° | 42.55 | 1008.4 | 51 41.870n | 012 38.750w | ||
| 6/12/2016 7:01 | 025° | 6.6 | -54° | 6.4 | Engine | 079° | 40.58 | 1009.9 | 51 49.760n | 011 31.187w | ||
| 6/12/2016 13:19 | 017° | 5.6 | -40° | 6.4 | Engine | 057° | 4.71 | 1010.5 | 52 00.647n | 010 27.809w | ||
| 6/12/2016 14:04 | 018° | 5.5 | -39° | 6.4 | Engine | 057° | 4.71 | 1010.6 | 52 03.517n | 010 21.742w | ||
| 6/12/2016 14:48 | 019° | 5.5 | 6° | 6.4 | Engine | 013° | 0.39 | 1010.6 | 52 06.381n | 010 15.662w | ||
| 6/12/2016 14:51 | 019° | 5.5 | 6° | 6.4 | Engine | 013° | 0.39 | 1010.6 | 52 06.771n | 010 15.571w | ||
| 6/12/2016 14:55 | 019° | 5.5 | 6° | Engine | 013° | 1010.6 | 52 07.161n | 010 15.480w | ||||
| Route distance | 2680.26nm | |||||||||||
| Optimal distance | 2840.64nm | |||||||||||
| Optimal route time | 15d 05h 25m |
It is of course a lot of data to try to digest, but you can see that there will be a bit of motor sailing at the beginning, then a few days of motoring at the end as the wind is predicted to drop. Of course forecasts 12+ days in advance so you can't read too much into the last 4-5 days of the prediction. The notes at the end show the route distance (following ken's waypoint) of 2480nm but is suggesting the boat travel 2840nm to get to the destination fastest. Finally is predicts the passage will take just over 15 days. As looking at tables of data is not that helfpul in terms of understanding what the program is telling you, it plots your route graphically including the predicted conditions (wind barbs) along your way. Below is the predicted route:
The Black line with white dots is the route given by Ken (discussed yesterday) and the Red line is the route Expedition suggests. As you can see the Expedition route goes through each white dot as we have told the program to follow that route to make sure it keeps the boat out of the ice zone. They are a little small, but you can see the red wind barbs along the route. Each one shows what the wind is predicted to do when the boat is at that location (long barbs are 10kts, short barbs are 5 kts, so a long barb with a short barb predicts about 15 kts and the direction of the barbs shows predicted wind direction.
Here is a zoomed in view which has also been "advanced" in time to show the overall weather prediction for Saturday June 4th. It is a little hard to see, but the predicted position of the boat at this time is shown with a red triangle along the red route line. Yoy can see the fairly large low pressure system (black lines are isobar lines, showing the low with a pressure of 996 milibars. The low is positioned North-East of the boats position at that time and you can see the boat will stay on the southern side of the low as it moves north east. This will keep the wind coming from the West as the boat travels East-North-East.
You may be able to now pick out the fact that the wind barbs swing around to the East along the route as the boat approaches Ireland but it should be less than about 10 kts. This is why the program suggests it may be neccesary to motor sail the last few days if the weather forecast doesn't change.
Bill will download new weather files each day and re-run the prediction based on the actual position of the boat and updated weather data. If the boat goes faster or slower than expected, or the weather forecast changes, then the program will adjust it's prediction accordingly. We don't blindly follow the suggestion of the algorithm, but have learned to let it help you process all the weather data and combine that with suggestions and information provided by Locus Weather to try to find the best, fastest, and/or most comfortable route along a passage.
It takes a little time to become proficient with Expedition and taking the time to refine the polar performance data was a big step in making the optimal routing more effective and helpful, but we find the software extremely valuable in improving passage speed and comfort and reducing the time it takes to process the trove of weather data that is available today.
If I have a few minutes tomorrow or in a few days, I will discuss a little bit about how it is we get that weather data when offshore, and I am sure we will hear from Bill in the morning as well, so stay tuned.
-- Gram
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